Uncertain occupational expectations at age 19 and later educational and labour market outcomes

Many young people lack clear subjective occupational expectations. A concern is how they will perform later in life. We examine the impact of uncertain expectations at age 19 on education and labour market outcomes at age 30. We use the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) 2000 survey conducted on a nationally representative sample of 15-year-olds, a follow-up survey in 2004, and administrative registry data from 2004–2014. We find that uncertain expectations are associated with low educational attainment and weak labour market attachment. This result applies mainly for young men and for young people from low socioeconomic backgrounds.